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UNITED STATES ANTIMONY CORP (UAMY)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 delivered strong year-over-year growth but missed Street expectations: revenue rose 238% YoY to $8.70M, but came in below consensus $12.96M; EPS of $(0.04) versus +$0.02 expected; EBITDA missed materially, reflecting heavy non‑cash SBC and start-up/expansion costs *.
  • Management narrowed FY25 revenue guidance to $40–$43M and reiterated FY26 revenue at $125M; multi‑year contracts (DLA IDIQ up to $245M and a ~$107M five‑year commercial trioxide agreement) underpin the outlook, with the first $10M DLA order already in hand and another ~$50M anticipated “in short order” .
  • Margin dynamics mixed: gross profit rose YoY to $2.01M, but operating expenses surged on $3.86M of Q3 share‑based comp; management flagged Q4 gross margin pressure from lower antimony prices, partially offset by long‑term contracts and cost actions .
  • Key catalysts: Thompson Falls smelter expansion (~65% complete) targets a 2026 volume ramp (management aspirations to 500–600 tons/month), plus inventory build (230 tons at 9/30) and diversified supply (Bolivia/Chad); near‑term risk is commodity price softness and execution on ramp .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Antimony pricing and mix drove outsized growth: Q3 revenue $8.70M vs $2.57M YoY; antimony revenue +439% to $8.03M, ASP $28.72/lb (+382% YoY), lifting gross profit per lb to $7.83 .
    • Commercial wins de‑risk demand: sole‑source DLA IDIQ (max $245M through 2030) and a five‑year ~$107M industrial trioxide agreement; first DLA delivery order ~$10M for 315k lbs, with ~$50M potential follow‑on highlighted on the call .
    • Strategic progress on self‑sourcing and capacity: 230 tons of antimony inventory at quarter‑end (~$9.2M at Rotterdam price); Thompson Falls expansion ~65% complete, with management positioning for a 2026 step‑change in output .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Material miss vs consensus: revenue $8.70M vs $12.96M*, EPS $(0.04) vs +$0.02*, and EBITDA $(5.10)M* vs +$1.95M*; operating loss widened to $(4.92)M as OpEx ballooned (SBC) * .
    • Margin headwinds near term: management explicitly cautioned Q4 gross margin pressure due to a declining antimony market price, though aiming to offset via contracts and cost levers .
    • Internal controls remain a work‑in‑progress: disclosure controls “not effective,” though remediation efforts (personnel, software, entity‑level controls) continue; investors may discount execution risk until resolved .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($)$2,572,178 $10,525,123 $8,701,951
Gross Profit ($)$423,829 $2,837,545 $2,013,442
Total Operating Expenses ($)$1,314,850 $2,817,538 $6,930,624
Income (Loss) from Operations ($)$(891,021) $20,007 $(4,917,182)
Net Income (Loss) ($)$(727,509) $181,555 $(4,780,700)
Diluted EPS ($)$(0.01) $0.00 $(0.04)
  • Select drivers
    • Q3 Gross margin ≈ 23.1% (calc: $2.01M/$8.70M) vs 16.5% YoY and ~27.0% in Q2 (calc from table) .
    • Q3 OpEx surge reflects non‑cash share‑based compensation ($3.86M in Q3) and lease termination gain offset ($0.47M) .

Segment performance (financials):

SegmentQ3 2024 Revenue ($)Q3 2025 Revenue ($)Q3 2024 Loss from Ops ($)Q3 2025 Loss from Ops ($)
Antimony$1,889,231 $8,030,005 $(44,384) $(3,646,313)
Zeolite$682,947 $671,946 $(713,180) $(236,420)
All Other$0 $0 $(133,457) $(1,034,449)

Operational KPIs:

KPI (Q3)20242025
Antimony pounds sold250,047 279,607
Antimony ASP ($/lb)$5.96 $28.72
Antimony cost ($/lb)$4.84 $20.89
Antimony GP ($/lb)$1.12 $7.83
Zeolite tons sold2,603 2,491
Zeolite ASP ($/ton)$262 $270
Zeolite cost ($/ton)$342 $280
Zeolite GP ($/ton)$(80) $(10)

Versus consensus (S&P Global):

MetricStreet (Q3 2025)Actual (Q3 2025)Delta
Revenue ($)$12,960,000*$8,701,951 Miss $(4,258,049)
Primary EPS ($)$0.02*$(0.0426)*Miss $(0.0626)
EBITDA ($)$1,950,000*$(5,095,910)*Miss $(7,045,910)

Values with asterisks (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($)FY 2025—$40–$43M Narrowed
Revenue ($)FY 2026$125M (prior)$125M (reiterated) Maintained

Notes:

  • The Company also highlighted DLA IDIQ max value ($245M) and a five‑year ~$107M trioxide contract; these are contractual frameworks, not formal revenue guidance. Initial DLA order ~$10M already received; management expects an additional ~$50M order “in short order” .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Government contractsNo DLA award in Q1/Q2; focus on expansion and inventory build .DLA sole‑source IDIQ up to $245M; first ~$10M order received; anticipate ~$50M follow‑on .Strong positive inflection.
Commercial contract winsNot disclosed in Q1/Q2 filings.Five‑year ~$107M antimony trioxide supply agreement announced alongside Q3 .Positive.
Smelter expansion (Thompson Falls)Engineering begun in April; capex est. < $15M (then) .Expansion ~65% complete; capex now ~$22–23M with another ~$10M in Q4; aiming for 2026 ramp .Scaling up; higher spend.
Supply chain/inventoryInventory rising due to ore purchases; working capital tied up .Record antimony inventory 230 tons (~$9.2M value) to fulfill long‑term contracts; diversified sources (Bolivia/Chad) .Building capacity; diversification.
Pricing/marginsASP gains drove H1 revenue; margins benefitted from earlier‑purchased ore .Q4 gross margin pressure expected from falling antimony prices; offset via contracts/costs .Near‑term headwind.
Capital & liquidityAt‑the‑market raises; new $5M LOC; cash $5.7M at Q2 .Raised ~+$42M YTD; cash + investments $38.5M at Q3; additional ~$66M raised in Oct (subsequent) .Significantly strengthened.
Exploration/self‑sourcingEarly stage Alaska/Canada claims; Philipsburg lease .Montana bulk sampling (560 tons moved); Alaska & Ontario programs advancing; aim to lift internal ore share in 2026 .Advancing.

Management Commentary

  • “There will be some pressure on our gross margins in the fourth quarter with a declining antimony market price. We are looking to offset as much of this decline as we can with lower costs and higher margin long-term contracts.” — CFO .
  • “Today…we’ve been averaging about 100 tons a month of production…That is going to change dramatically…by the end of 2026, we’ll be at 500 plus tons a month.” — CEO .
  • “We…immediately got an order for $10 million [from DLA]…and we’re anticipating another order of $50 million in short order.” — CEO .
  • “U.S. Antimony’s gross margins grow to over 60% utilizing our own material versus that acquired from third parties.” — CEO .
  • “Throughout 2025, USAC has developed and executed over 15 separate supply contracts…Primary supplies…in North America, Australia, Africa, South America, Central Asia and Southeast Asia…” — VP Antimony Division .

Q&A Highlights

  • Product mix clarification: DLA contract is for antimony metal ingots; the ~$107M commercial agreement is for antimony trioxide (ATO) .
  • Capacity expansion and site constraints: Thompson Falls expansion capped by site footprint; future smelting capacity additions most likely in Mexico (Madero) given gas availability and labor .
  • Capex: Smelter expansion capex around $23M total with at least ~$10M to be spent in Q4; previously disclosed capex plan ~$22.4M .
  • Ore sourcing mix: Target is 100% internal long‑term, but 2026 mix depends on weather (Montana/Alaska) and supply execution; staging/processing plans in Alaska in 2026 season .
  • Guidance context: FY26 $125M revenue guidance excludes the newly announced ATO commercial contract; additional government support potential acknowledged .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 vs S&P Global consensus: revenue $8.70M vs $12.96M*, EPS $(0.04) vs $0.02*, EBITDA $(5.10)M* vs $1.95M* — broad‑based misses driven by OpEx/SBC and ramp dynamics *.
  • FY25 and FY26 estimates imply step‑function growth next year (FY26 revenue ~$127.0M*, EPS ~$0.223*) consistent with management’s reiterated $125M revenue target and contract backdrop *.

Values with asterisks (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q3 print was a reset quarter: strong YoY growth but significant revenue/EPS/EBITDA misses versus S&P Global consensus; near‑term margin pressure likely in Q4 as antimony prices eased *.
  • The demand side is substantially de‑risked: DLA IDIQ ($245M max) plus a ~$107M five‑year ATO agreement provide multi‑year volume/price underpinning; initial $10M DLA order already underway, with a ~$50M follow‑on expected .
  • Execution pivot to 2026: Thompson Falls expansion (~65% complete) and diversified supply (Bolivia/Chad) support management’s 2026 ramp ambitions (500–600 tons/month) and reiterated FY26 revenue target ($125M) .
  • Mix shift to self‑sourced ore is the structural margin unlock: CEO targets >60% gross margins on own material versus third‑party feedstock once internal mining (Montana/Alaska) scales seasonally .
  • Balance sheet materially fortified: cash + investments $38.5M at Q3, plus ~$66M raised in October; line of credit increased to $10M, supporting working capital and capex through ramp .
  • Near‑term watch items: antimony price trajectory (Q4 margin sensitivity), pace of DLA/ATO order conversion, Thompson Falls project timing/budget (capex now ~$22–23M), and internal controls remediation .
  • Trading setup: Multi‑year contract visibility and 2026 ramp are medium‑term catalysts; Q4 margin pressure and continued SBC elevate near‑term earnings volatility. IR noted significant institutionalization and index inclusion momentum in Q3 .

Additional Disclosures and Data Points

  • Geographic revenue mix (Q3 2025): Domestic $8.54M; Canada $0.16M; Mexico $0.00M .
  • Antimony inventory at 9/30/25: 230 tons across processed/unprocessed, ~$9.2M value at Rotterdam price levels cited in the release; total inventories on balance sheet $8.41M .
  • Subsequent events: ~$66M gross equity proceeds in Oct 2025 across ATM and two direct offerings; new five‑year ATO supply agreement executed in November .

Citations:

  • Q3 2025 10‑Q financials, segments and notes: .
  • Q2 2025 10‑Q: .
  • Q1 2025 10‑Q: .
  • 8‑K (Item 2.02) with Q3 press release and guidance: .
  • 8‑K (Nov 14) with full transcript: -.
  • DLA IDIQ contract exhibit: -.

Values with asterisks (*) retrieved from S&P Global.